Predictions for the year …

16 Jan
2008
  1. Things will tighten. While the USD seems to have stopped its freefall (3 months ago it was 1 USD = 0.98 CAD, now its upto 1.02), year over year it got brutally hurt. With high oil prices finally start to affect consumer behaviour, and the housing market meltdown creating a huge gap in people’s spending power, the US will see a legitimate correction/ouch/get your breath moment. I think this will cause some of the more no-revenue sites (even with sizable traffic) to feel some pain. This will finally cause …
  2. The Great Offline to Online Local Migration. Local businesses are alrady starting to get unhappy with yellowpage publishers. There is enough evidence in front of everyone that less and less people are bothering with the yellow pages book anymore. Combined with the general tightening of things, enough small businesses will finally try to understand the internet and move their spending online. Which means …
  3. The rise of the online local ad networks. Part of local’s difficulty (and accompanying beauty) is the granularity. Companies like ReachLocal, which are helping companies move money from offline to online are focusing on the major search engines. But there is a ton of local content online – from event sites to blogs to everything in between. I believe we will finally see the rise of online local ad networks that distribute ads across a swath of websites. A very sizable amount of traffic that is ignored by most are …
  4. Domains (which will finally start to cool down). As things tighten, branding becomes more important. Which means generics like Food.com (great for traffic and SEO but harder to brand) won’t go skyrocketing like they were before. Or they may stay around the same … just like …
  5. Google, Yahoo, MSN – nothing will change. Maybe AOL. But the Big Three will remain the Big Three (really people need to give Yahoo some credit for stealing Flickr when it did).

2 Responses to Predictions for the year …

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Hany

January 16th, 2008 at 11:10 pm

I agree that Yahoo should be given more credit than most people today will give them. They have the most popular email and portal system out there…and are overall also the most visited site.

About domains, you really think domain values will finally start to cool down? I have been hearing people predict that for years and years…and while I do hope it happens (as I agree that the domain market is currently too crazy) I just don’t see what’s so different about this year. Care to elaborate?

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Ahmed

January 17th, 2008 at 12:21 pm

Well its all connected Hany – I think as (if?) the US economy starts to struggle/slow down, the amount of money to go into domains will go down.

The flip argument is that values will go up even faster as people look for something to invest in that isn’t real estate nor stocks.

Still – as the #s inch up higher and higher, the # of buyers available become less. A lot of domain buyers today are still domainers buying from other domainers – acceptable Xs have gone from 8 all the way upto 20. How far are domainers willing to gamble?

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